Southwest Day Analysis - Matt Dinerman
Southwest Stakes Day Full Card Analysis
By Matt Dinerman (Oaklawn Track Announcer)
12 races comprise Southwest Day 2025 at Oaklawn Park! Early first post is 11:25 AM CT. Races 6-10 make up our special ‘All Stakes Pick 5’ wager while the $1,000,000 Grade 3 Southwest goes as Race 10. 10 three-year-olds are entered, with the winner to receive 20 Kentucky Derby points. If you’re looking for a second or third or even tenth opinion on our Southwest Card, then you’ve come to the right place! Below are my top three selections for each race…good luck!
Race 1: With the immanent scratch of #8 Bedard (re-entered for next Thursday), #6 Gewurztraminer appears as the projected loose leader. A similar effort to his last start is good enough to win this race today. #4 Lat Long may have needed his last start off a layoff. He ran well nonetheless, placing third behind a winner who ‘freaked’ on the day. Note before the layoff, Lat Long competed against some tough cookies: stakes winners Dornoch, Dragoon Guard, Sierra Leone, and Track Phantom are among the names. #2 Elusive Target is protected from being purchased first start off a $50,000 claim by trainer Tom Amoss; Amoss wins at a 20% clip first off the claim. Speed figures indicate this one can be competitive against this group on his best day.
Race 2: To kick off his racing career on December 29, #6 Shepherd raced far off the pace early before rolling down the lane with an encouraging gallop out. He finished behind race winner Innovator, who wheeled back to place third in the G3 LeComte last weekend. Shepherd gave us the impression he will enjoy the added ground he finds today. #8 La Houligan raced wide on both turns after missing the break and ended up running second. It was a better than looked effort with an undesirable trip. He can build off that. #11 Rapture put up a good account of himself as the runner up on debut last month at Gulfstream Park. He raced a bit greenly down the lane when second to Vassimo, who returned to win an allowance race at Tampa Bay Downs.
Race 3: #4 March of Time is a well-bred Bob Baffert trained colt who won stylishly at low odds last time out. The half-brother to 2012 Arkansas Derby winner Bodemeister is fast enough to beat this field, though he gives up significant race experience to many of his rivals. Second at this level two starts ago, #3 Gunflash had to steady early in his most recent start, eventually picked it up in the final quarter mile, and rallied for fourth. The pace is expected to be quick here, and we believe he can be a major player at a price. #12 Anthonian has been training up a storm; you can view his and other Oaklawn based horses’ workouts at Oaklawn.com/racing/workouts. The Randy Morse trainee looked solid when beating a maiden special weight group last time out at Churchill Downs and, like our top pick, faces winners for the first time.
Race 4: #2 Mackman is another on Oaklawn’s website that has looked sharp in his morning preparations. He earned a big speed figure as the runner up at this level last time out and, two starts back, finished behind Kinetic, who is 6-5 on the morning in a stake later today. #6 Bishops Bay has never run a bad race. Sent off at 2-5 at this condition earlier in the month, he dueled at a fast clip, was confronted by the eventual race winner, and showed grit when fighting back along the inside. He ultimately had to settle for second. Problem is, there’s a good amount of pace in this race too; our top pick might get a little bit better trip. #10 Zatara is the price play; he ran a hole in the wind in his last afternoon appearance. That said, he’ll need to prove that last start was no fluke as he had never run a race close to his last before.
Race 5: The first of six stakes on the card is the $150,000 King Cotton for sprinters. Deep closer #1 Tejano Twist flew home from the rear off a slow pace last time out and was second best to Banishing, who came back to win the Byerley Turk Stakes on Thursday in a romp. Although the pace isn’t expected to be fast here, Tejano Twist loves Oaklawn Park, has a lethal closing kick, and picks up the services of Eclipse Award winning jockey Flavian Prat. #4 Gulfport is a consistent dude who sports career best form. Two starts ago, he won a minor stake at Churchill, and was last seen running second to third pick #6 Happy Is a Choice. That day, Happy Is a Choice was loaded behind horses, found a seam down the stretch, and nailed Gulfport on the money. The one concern is he hasn’t had a public workout in over a month; that gives us cause for pause. 20-1 morning line shot #5 Edge to Edge should not be ignored, especially if he needed his last start and can replicate his Eclipse Stakes win from last year.
Race 6: This is the start of the All Stakes Pick 5 (Races 6-10). #1 Kinetic is getting better with every start. Most recently second behind Pegasus World Cup contender Saudi Crown, Kinetic possesses the best speed figures and is clearly the one to beat. #3 Sir Greylind makes his stakes debut after a dominant win against first level allowance company on January 5. If he can repeat that effort, he stacks up with these. #5 Time for Trouble makes his first start off a five-month layoff. The class is there to be competitive in a race like this as he finished third in the Grade 3 Essex last year at Oaklawn. Going a mile and an eighth off a break is no easy task, but he’s worth the use if his 15-1 morning line holds up.
Race 7: #7 Henro sat off a quick pace and blasted home for a clear victory against restricted 3-year-old sprinters last month. Now he faces older foes and stakes company. That said, he won the Iowa Derby over the summer at two turns, and we believe this mile distance will suit him well. #8 Liberal Arts is two for two since joining Team Brad Cox. Third start in the current form cycle, he should be ready for a peak effort. #6 Raise Cain was third off a freshening last time out. He sat in midfield in a merry-go-round race where the winner walked the dog on the lead. Raise Cain will get a better pace to run into this time for trainer Ben Colebrook, who strikes at 26% with runners making their second start off a break between 45-180 days. #5 The Wine Steward is the class of the field: he placed in three graded stakes, including a Grade 1, before a layoff. That noted, he is indeed coming off a 7-month vacation here; now is the time to play against.
Race 8: We’ll take a shot with ‘the now horse’ #13 Mischievous Gal: this versatile sprinter can win from close to the pace or off the speed. She’s won three races in a row and is starting to get good; wouldn’t be surprised if she takes another step forward here. #8 Royal Spa figures to be right there with her usual run. She takes a theoretical class drop, racing against restricted stakes company here versus past races in which she competed against open stakes company. #6 Tanya Showers was unable to catch two stakes caliber runners last time, but could get a favorable pace scenario here.
Race 9: The Martha Washington Stakes for 3-year-old fillies offers 20 Kentucky Oaks points to the winner and 22 additional points to the second through fourth place finishers. #5 Gowells Delight won on debut at two turns by open lengths and can improve for an outfit that rarely cranks their horses up first time out. She looks like a promising prospect. #1 Quietside makes her 3-year-old debut after a trio of in-the-money finishes in graded stakes: the G1 Spinaway, the G1 Alcibaides, and the G2 Golden Rod. Obviously the one to beat. #3 Take Charge Milady had more in the tank when breaking her maiden three weeks ago. Her form is trending upward.
Race 10: The $1,000,000 Southwest offers the same amount of Kentucky Derby points as the Martha Washington does Oaks points. What #7 Patch Adams did to break his maiden in November was special: he posted a 98 Beyer and broke the track record going 7 furlongs. Since then, he’s been wracking off bullet morning works for trainer Brad Cox. On one of those occasions he worked with Hit Show, who won the G3 Louisiana Stakes last weekend against older horses at The Fair Grounds. Patch Adams was on a hold while Hit Show was all out to keep up with him. The two turns should be no problem for Patch...could be the ‘real deal.’ #6 Sandman has always shown sparks of ability, but he never put it all together until last time out, when he showed a nice kick to win an allowance race here at Oaklawn. He is only improving and may very well continue to do so with more racing and distance. #1 Gaming was second best in the Breeders Cup Juvenile but bounced badly in the Los Al Futurity six weeks later, running a subpar third with seemingly no excuses. He is trained by Bob Baffert, who has won this race six times. #4 Tiztastic freshens up after a third-place finish behind two talented KY Derby hopefuls in the G2 Kentucky Jockey Club in November. He could be sneaky at what will be a decent price.
Race 11: #1 Fanatical doesn’t win the post position draw but certainly has room to improve after a good third place finish behind the talented Gunmetal, who looks like a stakes caliber type. Fanatical’s trainer William Walden is 5 for 12 with maiden second time starters. #3 Dreaminblue was outfinished by multiple stakes placed Innovator last time over a wet surface. His lone sprint over a fast track was average, albeit that was his first time out. If he runs back anywhere close to his last start, he’ll be a handful. #2 El Prestigio has a case of ‘seconditis’: he’s earned the silver medal in his last four races. Stablemate #7 Oil Capital is a firster from the Steve Asmussen barn that possesses win early pedigree and paired a couple of quick five-furlong drills in December.
Race 12: If #13 Tizmarkus draws into the race, he could be tough on debut. A workout video on Oaklawn.com shows this guy has natural speed and ability. #5 Two Dollar Eddie was second best to the always well regarded Arky bred Burlsworth. ‘Eddie finished over six lengths clear of the third-place finisher. #3 Bote settled for second in both lifetime afternoon appearances and is knocking on the door for a win.