Smarty Jones Day Analysis - Matt Dinerman
Smarty Jones Day 2025 at Oaklawn: Full Card Analysis
By Matt Dinerman (Track Announcer)
To find the richest road to the Kentucky Derby, look no further than Oaklawn Park: three of our four Kentucky Derby points races offer a seven-figure purse! The first ‘Derby points race of the year, the $250,000 Smarty Jones, goes as Race 9 on a robust 10-race program today. Below are top three selections for each race. Good luck!
Race 1: #2 The Warden switched from turf to dirt last time out and ran better than ever in defeat, getting edged out in the late stages by a well-regarded Bill Mott trained colt. The Warden races on the diuretic Lasix for the first time as a newly turned 3-year-old and could be tough to beat with a similar effort to his last. #4 Hypnus is an impeccably bred colt making his debut. By top stallion Into Mischief out of the Grade 1 winning router Dream Tree, the pedigree suggests he will enjoy the two-turn game. #3 Crisis Manager gets the ultimate equipment change-a first time gelding-and makes his two-turn debut for a hot barn. Most recently, he finished behind Monet’s Magic, who has since won back-to-back races, one of which was an allowance at Oaklawn last week.
Race 2: #9 Knicks Story cuts his claiming price in half after a third-place finish in October. He appears well spotted for trainer Genaro Garcia, who has started off the Oaklawn meet hot with a 5 for 12 win record. #5 Martini Blu is another who freshens up and takes a dip down in class. He sports a quick work leading up to this run and is likely to receive an ideal stalking trip off a projected quick pace. #3 Alto Road enters for trainer Jonas Gibson, who strikes at a 24%-win clip first-start-off-the-claim. Leading rider Cristian Torres hops aboard, only adding to the appeal.
Race 3: #12 Miracle on Central picks up much needed class relief and cuts back from a route to a sprint, meaning he will be super fit for this run. It’s also worth noting his trainer, Chris Hartman, wins at a very high 29% win rate when turning back his trainees from routes to sprints. Having drawn the far outside post, Miracle on Central will stay out of harm’s way in this large field. #5 Bermuda Blitz is another who exits maiden special weight company and should benefit with the class note in mind. He also races on Lasix for the first time. #10 Zoom was third best in a maiden special weight at the Fair Grounds first time out and is aggressively spotted while in for the 50k tag today.
Race 4: #4 Payne is an old pro that loves Oaklawn Park. He most recently placed second against a tougher field than what he finds here. #7 California Tiger was out finished for second in his last start by a next out winner. He fits with this group if he can run to his best speed figures. #6 Briterdayzahead is a trip play. Last time out, he checked repeatedly behind horses through the final quarter mile and lost much momentum in doing so.
Race 5: #5 Jimmy got bet on debut and failed to fire in the slop. He hasn’t been seen since. He sports a steady series of works leading up to his 4-year-old debut, makes his first start on Lasix, and will get a fast track to race over this time. #8 Burlsworth was outclassed in his last race, an ‘open’ maiden special weight at Churchill Downs, and now competes against fellow Arkansas breds. Strictly the one to beat. #4 Devil’s Fork has been working up a storm; you can view his and others’ workouts on Oaklawn.com/racing/workouts. Watching his morning drills, he looks like a different horse as a newly turned 4-year-old and gelding.
Race 6: In his most recent start, #10 Goldbrick showed speed and faded to fifth over a muddy surface going a one turn mile. This is his third start off a layoff, an angle that indicates he’ll be ready for a peak effort in the current form cycle. He also gets to two turns now: his best races before the layoff came going two turns here at Oaklawn last season. #9 Anthonian broke his maiden in determined fashion sprinting on November 25. He possesses the breeding to enjoy two-turns: his dam’s lone win came routing and one of two winning siblings was victorious routing. #8 Lat Long faced the likes of graded stakes winners Dragoon Guard, Sierra Leone, and Track Phantom in multiple races as a 3-year-old last year. He posts quick workouts leading up to his return to the races in 2025 for trainer Kenny McPeek.
Race 7: #7 Shisospicy is the most likely winner on the card. After an eye popping 16-length maiden win to kick off her racing career, she returned to place third in a tough stake at Churchill Downs. She was the only runner contesting the pace who stuck around in the end…it was a better than looked effort. This is a much lighter group than the aforementioned stake, and she appears quickest on paper early. #2 G W’s Girl tries dirt for the first time after a 2-length loss behind Governor Sam at Keeneland; ‘Sam returned to run third in the Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint. All three siblings to G W’s Girl were dirt sprinters. #9 Chatter makes her first start against winners after a gutsy maiden win in Kentucky and merits respect.
Race 8: #6 Gunflash rallied with a flying finish at this level last time out but ultimately had to settle for second behind a rival who got the jump on him. A lightning quick pace is projected to ensue, which is exactly what Gunflash needs to be most successful from off the pace. #1 Attache is certainly the best horse in the field and sports the consistency to be a reliable use. That said, he drew a poor post position and is likely to be close to said rapid pace. #9 Juilliard never got involved in his first start off a layoff three weeks ago. Last year, he hit the board a couple times at this level and improved as the Oaklawn meet went on. He’s possible to take a step forward with an afternoon trial under his belt.
Race 9: The winner of the 2025 Smarty Jones receives 10 Kentucky Derby points. We give the nod to #5 Mo Quality, a recent maiden sprint winner at Churchill Downs that should be fine with added ground. His sire, G1 winning router Mo Town, wins at 14% (an average rate) with his dirt route prodigy. The dam was winless but in-the-money routing; this is her first foal. #6 Hot Property was a debut route winner at the Fair Grounds and earned a strong speed figure for the effort. Brad Cox trains the son of Medaglia D’Oro; Cox won last year’s Smarty Jones with Catching Freedom. #1 Kale’s Angel decisively won the 5.5-furlong Advent Stakes on Opening Day. It was his first start on dirt, and he improved greatly from four previous turf runs. Clearly he’s a dirt horse; now the question is whether he can duplicate that effort at a route distance. #8 Coal Battle won the Springboard Mile at Remington last month and wheels back quickly for his 3-year-old debut. #7 Curvino broke his maiden last time and seeks to build off that.
Race 10: #11 Lambeth has run against second level allowance company as of late and drops in class to this first level condition. The only knock is his post position; he’ll need to work out a good trip from the outside. #5 Get a Job was asked to rate last time out, and the experiment failed. If he employs tactics he displayed in both career wins-being aggressive and showing speed-then we’re hopeful a rebound performance is in the works. #2 King Russell always seems to be around but can never get the job done on the win end. He is a good use underneath in exotics.
Show Bet Bonus Parlay:
Race 4: #4 Payne
Race 5: #5 Jimmy
Race 8: #6 Gunflash
Race 9: #5 Mo Quality
Best Bet of the Day: Race 7: #7 Shisospicy
Longshot Play of the Day: Race 3: #12 Miracle on Central
