Rebel Stakes Day Analysis - Matt Dinerman
2026 Rebel Stakes Day Selections
By Matt Dinerman (Track Announcer)
Like every year on this day, Rebel afternoon at Oaklawn features competitive, quality-filled races with plenty of juicy wagering opportunities. For those seeking a second or third (or tenth) opinion, here are my top three selections in each race. Good luck!
Race 1: The opener on Rebel Day looks formful. With a projected lack of pace in this race, we give the nod to #3 Gewurtztraminer, who figures to be close and has been competitive at starter allowance conditions the last couple of seasons at Oaklawn. He’s expected to get the jump on likely post time favorite #7 Bright Spark, who exits a respectable runner-up finish at this condition three weeks ago. #4 Undressed picked up a confidence-boosting win less than two weeks ago and wheels back quickly for leading trainer Steve Asmussen.
Race 2: #2 Northern Chill is a trip play. He walked out of the gate in his last start, was left with too much to do, and passed tired foes down the lane. Although he’s failed to win in six starts at this level, he’s hit the board multiple times behind nice horses who have gone on to win at tougher conditions. Today, he’s expected to track what should be a pretty quick and contentious tempo. #5 Nicholai is a game front-runner who has shown the ability to deal with pace pressure, which he’ll likely receive here. Last time out, he beat Touchdown Arkansas, who returned to win an Arkansas-bred stake last week. #4 Sharp Swinger attains the services of Irad Ortiz Jr, meaning he’ll likely get bet—and probably overbet. He placed third at this level last time and stacks up well with this group, but he’s beatable as the projected post time favorite.
Race 3: On paper, it’s a two-horse battle between last year’s Count Fleet (G3) winner #1 Booth and multiple Oaklawn Stakes winner #6 Tejano Twist. We’ll give the nod to the former, who posts a steady series of drills leading up to his 2026 debut. He’s the controlling speed and loves Oaklawn. Tejano Twist, on the other hand, is a closer with a nice kick and could benefit if Booth and #2 Hola Joey hook up on the lead. #4 Durante is an inconsistent type but good enough to be competitive on his best day.
Race 4: We like the cutback in distance for #3 Zero Sugar, who hasn’t sprinted since a runner-up finish on debut to the wickedly talented Cornucopian. ‘Sugar didn’t run a step last time out routing, though it’s worth noting he was coming off a winter break that day and hadn’t been on the racetrack for over a week. We’re willing to give him another chance. #9 Senior Officer was last seen in October of 2024, finishing as the runner-up at this level in Kentucky. He was well regarded before his only other afternoon appearance, a first-out win for trainer Brad Cox, and could do some damage off the vacation if he’s got the same ability he showed 16 months ago. #7 Faust can’t be trusted on the win end but is a reliable use underneath in exotics; he’s finished third six times and, in past races, placed behind a few rivals who are arguably faster than the main contenders here.
Race 5: The first stake of the day is the Pig Trail Overnight at one mile and a half. #6 Batten Down was supplemented into this race by Bill Mott and should enjoy going this far. Even though all his wins have come on the lead, he’s shown effectiveness stalking the pace in the past (ex, in a race where he ran third behind top-class competitors Fierceness and Sierra Leone in the 2024 Jim Dandy). That versatility could prove useful with “need the lead” rival #1 Otello entered. #5 Systemic Change was an open-length winner last time out against an allowance caliber field. His breeding, by Ghostzapper out of an A.P. Indy mare, indicates he should love stretching out to this “marathon” distance. #4 Catching Freedom has struggled to find the winner's circle since winning the Smarty Jones Stakes at Oaklawn as a 3-year-old, but is another one who will likely enjoy racing at a longer distance.
Race 6: This is one of the more competitive races in the program. #5 Thoughtthatcounts cuts back from a route to a sprint, one of my favorite angles in the game. He’ll be really fit making this move. He placed in a restricted stake two starts ago, sprinting and was second best to stakes caliber racer Minnesota Ready three back. He fits. #10 Run Classic makes his first start in 10 months. He’s the class of the field; he won the Gulfstream Park Sprint in February of ’24, competed in the G1 Dubai Golden Shaheen afterwards, and has placed in two stake sprints since. All that said, if you try to beat him on the win end in this ratings handicap race, now is probably the time to do it. #9 Devil’s Tower is a hard-knocking old pro who typically performs well at Oaklawn and can outrun his 15-1 ML odds.
Race 7: #2 Whitley was third best behind a runway, freakish first-out winner on January 2. Whitley looked like he may have needed the race off a layoff and, if so, is very much eligible to improve in the second start in his form cycle. #3 Cattle Baron placed behind Honey’s to Blame the last time he sprinted; Honey’s to Blame has since won a two-turn allowance against open company and is entered in the Rebel (G2). Although Cattle Baron faces a few older foes here, talent-wise he might stack up, and we like that he recently posted a bullet workout leading up to this. #10 Wolf Tooth tried routing on debut and placed second behind a runner with experience; all things considered, it was an admirable effort. Wolf Tooth possesses a pedigree to suggest he may be better sprinting anyway; things to like with him, though this is a tougher group than what he saw on debut.
Race 8: #6 Silver Syndicate was well regarded before his debut. That day, he took the lead at the quarter pole before tiring late to hold third. It was a better-than-looked effort, especially considering he missed some training time just ahead of the race due to poor weather. Fitness-wise, he likely got a lot out of the race, and we feel he can take a major step forward in lifetime start number two. #3 Fancy Fairlane placed second in his debut behind next-out LeComte (G3) winner Golden Tempo and finished ahead of two additional next-out winners in the process. He’s freshened up two months since that run and picks up Hall of Famer John Velazquez. #2 Munnings Challenge is the first foal out of the talented sprinter Ami’s Challenge and posts quick works at the Fair Grounds leading up to this first lifetime start.
Race 9: #7 Counting Stars ran a hole in the wind when decimating her rivals in the Year’s End Stakes as a 2-year-old. In her next start, the Martha Washington, she went off at 3-5, stalked the pace, backed away around the far turn, and was eased. Her connections claim there were no excuses. In one other previous race, she threw in a clunker, but then immediately rebounded in her next start. We like that she’s got a bullet work since the Martha Washington no show; a rebound back to her best makes her a legit player at what will probably be a fair price. #9 Explora has been a picture of consistency: three wins and three seconds from six lifetime starts. She has enough early speed to make the front, but doesn’t need to be there if things get too hot and heavy. There’s no reason to believe she won’t be competitive once again. #10 Taken by the Wind has done nothing but win in three lifetime starts, overcoming various changes each start. She must navigate an outside post, but is another who’s versatile enough to place herself in a good position depending on how the race plays out. Second start off the layoff for Kenny McPeek; she probably wasn’t fully cranked last time, yet still beat a solid field in the Silverbulletday Stakes.
Race 10: In his first start, #8 Rocky Raccoon sat in a stalking spot early, took the lead in the upper stretch and got a tad tired late to check third behind Circle Tap, who wheeled back to run fifth in the Southwest (G3). Rocky Raccoon looked like a horse who could move forward fitness wise off that effort; live at a price. #11 Dragones looked home free after “stalking and pouncing” on the early leaders in his last start but waited on company in a deep stretch and ultimately got tagged late by the winner. This $1.7 million purchase has talent, but mentally he hasn’t quite figured it all out yet. #7 Fleek adds blinkers off a runner up finish at this condition. His two-back effort was much better than it looked, rounding out the superfecta after a bad break and wide trip.
Race 11: The Rebel attracts a strong cast of characters. Trainer Todd Pletcher hasn’t competed in the Rebel in quite a few years, but he may have a live one here in #3 Class President. A convincing debut winner over next out winner Easterly in Florida, Class President returned against winners and ran second behind freakish sprinter Solitude Dude, who is a major contender stretching out in Saturday’s Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream. Class President will likely benefit from added ground, which he receives in the Rebel, and is projected to work out a great stalking trip. Lightly raced but talented. #7 Silent Tactic came on like a train for a three-length score in the Southwest (G3). That day, he chased a moderate pace and still closed strongly, indicating a strong effort and not a perfect set up. We don’t feel that last start was a fluke. #4 Blackout Time was second best behind Breeders Cup (G1) and eventual Eclipse Award winner Ted Noffey at Keeneland in October and hasn’t run since then. Siding with a couple others that have recent races under their belts, but there’s no doubt Blackout Time is a talented colt. #2 Litmus Test looks to give trainer Bob Baffert his record ninth Rebel trophy. Though he has progressed steadily over time and freshens up after a gritty Los Alamitos Futurity win, this is a tougher group than what he saw last time.
Race 12: #9 Whispering Charm makes her second start off a seven-month break. Last time, she finished a half-length behind the winner and showed grit while trying to counter punch when headed. She ran well enough to give her another shot at this level. #7 Like a Diamond worked well (you can watch Oaklawn workouts on our website) before her first start and has put up two decent efforts in the afternoon so far. She merits respect. #10 Bossa Drama came up just short in her career debut in Texas after producing a strong rally down the center of the track. The Arkansas bred ships north for trainer Steve Asmussen and is live if she can take a step forward in lifetime start number two.
