Rebel Day - Matt Dinerman

Matt Dinerman’s Rebel Day Full Card Analysis

Early first post is 12 PM on a sensational 12-race Rebel Day card…good luck!

Race 1: #4 Imperial Gun was a decisive maiden winner on New Year’s Eve. He won with plenty left in the tank and gave the impression he could be a stakes horse down the road. He’ll get the first jump on #6 Footprint, who suffered a horrendous trip when finishing third beaten a head in a race won by Rebel contender Woodcourt. Footprint was probably best that day. #5 Seize the Grey makes his 3-year-old debut here. Last year, he finished a neck behind Southwest third place finisher Liberal Arts in the Grade 3 Iroquois at Churchill Downs.

Race 2: #5 Run Jalen Run has been knocking on the door for a win at this level. Last time, he settled for a minor award behind the well-regarded Mr. Fillip. ‘Jalen’ has tactical speed and should work out a good trip. #1 Sir Otto is a $450,000 first time starter by Arrogate out of a half sibling to Grade 1 placed router Normandy Invasion. The dam’s lone win came sprinting and her only other foal was also a sprinter. ‘Otto sports a pair of bullet works and picks up the services of Florida/Kentucky based jockey Tyler Gaffalione. #3 Coach Jimi D finished second in his most recent afternoon appearance and would be a legit player if he can duplicate that effort.

Race 3: #3 Motown Dynamic went off favored in her debut and was second home to Ghalia Princess, who returned to hit the board in the Ruthless Stakes at Aqueduct. Two others that Motown Dynamic finished ahead of came back to win. Strictly the one to beat off a good showing against above average maidens. #5 Bang Bang Fury was last seen placing third as the favorite behind next-out stakes winner and Grade 3 Honeybee contender Midshipman’s Dance. Earlier in her career, Bang Bang’ finished a neck behind stakes winner West Sunset. #7 Cruise Missile was a neck short of graduating from the maiden ranks last time and is a logical contender.

Race 4: Golden Gate shipper #8 Unraptured has knocked heads with some of the best sprinters in Northern California. His last dirt track appearance ended in a third-place finish behind 5-time stake winner Top Harbor. Unraptured makes his first start for the Bill E. Morey barn; Morey strikes at a strong 27%-win clip with horses making their first start under his care. #2 Gunflash didn’t take to the wet going in a lackluster effort last time out. He’s always been more effective over a dry track. This versatile dude has won on the lead and from closing positions; fast enough to be a player on his best day. #9 Sinner’s Sin can step forward in his second start off a layoff for an outfit that typically shows improvement with their runners who have an out in the holster.

Race 5: #3 Tap the Champagne’s pedigree suggests she’ll love the stretch out in distance in this route: one sibling Majestic Harbor won the Grade 1 Santa Anita Handicap at ten furlongs while another, Danza, was victorious in the 2014 Arkansas Derby. Tap the Champagne’s lone dirt try resulted in a third-place finish behind next out Oaklawn allowance winner Divine Gal. #8 Enigmatic ran poorly in her first start without blinkers in December and reapplies the hood in hopes for a turnaround effort. Two races ago, she finished a strong second while earning a speed figure that is good enough to beat this group. The royally bred #10 Who’s Ticket failed to fire in her career debut sprinting but should appreciate more ground. Her dam Take Charge Brandi won the 2014 Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies at 8.5 furlongs. Both siblings of Who’s Ticket were effective at the route game too, including Courvoisier, who won the one-mile Jerome at Aqueduct two years ago.

Race 6: #7 Pledgeofallegiance did everything but win in his two-back effort at this level over a fast track. Terrific try. He returned over a wet surface and ran poorly while receiving a less than ideal trip. A better journey, a return to a fast track, and the fact he’ll be close to the pace in a race with not a great deal of speed makes this guy an intriguing play. #8 Sun Thunder had to settle for the silver medal behind Bolzy and Midnight Rising in his last two starts at this level; the aforementioned pair are entered in the Grade 3 Razorback. Sun Thunder will be closing from well off the pace though, and could be compromised by a projected moderate tempo. #9 Chrome Baby is a massive price horse who could surprise. His last two runs have been abysmal, yes, but both efforts came over wet surfaces. His recent dry track races have been significantly better and speed figures from those efforts hint he is fast enough to be competitive.

Race 7: #3 Linnie Mae went off as the 8-5 favorite on debut, showed speed, and faded to third. The runner up finisher in the race returned to win by four lengths at this condition. Linnie Mae’s trainer, Ernie Witt II, sports a solid win percentage with maiden second time starters. Oaklawn leading jockey Cristian Torres rode Linnie Mae last time but lands on first time starter #10 Snow Flurry. The $95,000 Arkansas bred by Good Magic is out of a stakes placed sprinter. This stakes placed dam has produced six winning siblings to Snow Flurry, two of whom were stakes placed themselves. #11 Queen Mallard posts sharp works and possesses the pedigree to be a solid sprinter: her dam was a sprinter and a full sibling, One Ten Stadium, is an allowance sprint winner.

Race 8: Race 8 is the first leg of an All Stakes Pick 4 sequence. The 150k Carousel is for filly and mare sprinters. On paper, it looks like a match race. The nod goes to #8 Zeitlos, an ultra-consistent racer who was a flashy allowance winner earlier this month. She could have won by more, meaning there was another gear or two in the engine, and a similar performance would make her tough. Fair Grounds shipper #7 Mucho Macho Girl showed authority, class, and versatility when easily beating up on allowance caliber foes in New Orleans this winter. She makes her stakes debut here. #1 Adaline Julia was too far back in her last start and may be able to pick up a piece of the pie with a more forwardly placed trip.

Race 9: 3-year-old fillies compete for Kentucky Oaks points in the Grade 3 400K Honeybee. #6 West Omaha is certainly the best of this bunch and will be a handful with a repeat effort of her Silverbulletday Stakes triumph last month, dominating by five lengths at low odds. Brad Cox has a strong contingent of 3-year-old fillies this year and this gal is as good as any of them. #1 Alys Beach posts a series of quick works in preparation for her return to the races. The last time she raced (in October), she placed third in the Grade 1 Alcibiades at Keeneland. She finished ahead of two next-out winners that day for trainer Tom Amoss, who wins at almost 20% with layoff horses making their first start between 61-180 days. #10 Midshipman’s Dance is the local with the strongest resume. She won on debut in gritty style and returned for an off-the-pace victory in the Mockingbird Stakes. Both efforts came sprinting. Breeding says she could be even better going long; both siblings were routers and her dam won the 2012 Remington Oaks at two turns.

Race 10: The Grade 3 600K Razorback attracts a large field. #11 Notary is going better than ever. His last start, a five-length runaway score against second level allowance foes, suggests he’s ready for this bump up to stakes company. The lone loss in his last three starts came at the hoofs of Money Supply, who wheeled back to win the Grade 3 Mineshaft last week. Notary is projected to stalk a quick pace. #8 Magic Tap makes his first start against stakes rivals since a fourth-place finish in the Pennsylvania Derby last year. He enters this fresh off an open allowance win-a good prep for his return to graded stakes action. #3 Speed Bias went off at 4-5 in the allowance race won by Magic Tap. He ran his ‘C’ race. Look at his A+ races: a neck loss to O’Connor at Keeneland, a runner up finish to War Campaign in the Tinsel (while narrowly defeated next out stakes winner Strong Quality for second)…if trainer Ron Moquett can find a quick fix, Speed Bias could be right there at the wire.

Race 11: The Grade 2 $1,250,000 Rebel will be a fun one. We’re taking a shot with #2 Northern Flame, who last month in an allowance race did all the dirty work dueling up front before gamely holding off all challengers. That run sets him up nicely for this race. He doesn’t need the lead; last year he stalked the pace and ran fourth behind Locked and The Wine Steward in The Grade 1 Breeders Futurity at Keeneland. #7 Timberlake is the best horse in the race. Winner of the one-turn Grade 1 Champagne as a 2-year-old, this Brad Cox trainee will surely be fit off the layoff for a race of this magnitude. He still needs to answer whether he’ll be an effective two turn horse though, as the last time we saw him try it he ran a subpar, well beaten fourth in the Breeders Cup Juvenile. #8 Next Level is a grinder that could overachieve. He was an unlucky loser in his last start, getting caught behind horses in traffic and taking a while to regather himself. He finished a nose behind the winner. His trainer, Keith Desormeaux, won this race last year with 18-1 shot Confidence Game. OTHER NOTES: #11 Just Steel put up solid showings in back-to-back runner up finishes in the Smarty Jones and Southwest. Should be respected. #1 Carbone could rebound off a poor effort in the Southwest when attempting to stalk the pace over a muddy track. His two career wins were both flashy and came on the lead over a dry track-conditions he’s going to get here. Stablemate #7 Dimatic raced greenly in his maiden score three weeks ago but has improved in every start and will get a pace to chase for top human connections.

Race 12: #7 Crushed It towers over this field in the speed figure department after two narrow defeats behind well regarded horses. Third times the charm for this projected odds-on favorite. #2 Give Me a Reason has reason to improve after a green effort behind Grade 3 placed Lat Long and Rebel contender Common Defense. With maybe the exception of our top pick, this is an easier field. #8 Charleston was outclassed in the Southwest Stakes as a maiden last time but can be more competitive in this lighter spot.

Best Bet: Race 10- #11 Notary

Longshot Play: Race 5-#3 Tap the Champagne