Arkansas Derby Day Full Card Analysis by Matt Dinerman
14 races on the docket for the biggest day of the Oaklawn season: Arkansas Derby Day! For those interested in a second or third or tenth opinion, here are my top three picks in each race. Good luck!
***PLEASE NOTE: PICKS SUBJECT TO CHANGE DUE TO LATE SCRATCHES***
Race 1: #7 Talkin in Cursive finds class relief after a narrow loss against allowance foes 15 days ago. She figures to receive a perfect stalking trip behind two “need the lead” rivals. #2 One Way or Another beat state-bred allowance company in her second start off a layoff last time and is another who can sit off the projected speed battle before pouncing down the lane. #3 Jet Pack got bet in a March 8 heat at this level but suffered a wide journey while arguably too far back early. With a better trip, a rebound effort is very possible.
Race 2: #11 Mr. Farenheit cuts back from a route to a sprint after a recent poor showing going two turns; he should be very fit with the cutback in mind. He finished only a length and a quarter behind the winner the last time we saw him sprinting—a race which was stronger than this one. #1 Perfectly Harvey sat off the pace, made a mild mid-race/wide move around the far turn before tiring late in his first and only start. He’s eligible to improve with a race under his belt. #4 Gimme a Chance was the runner up against lesser last time and makes his first start off the claim for Steve Asmussen. Speed figures imply he fits with this group.
Race 3: #7 Rebecca Jo posted a decent gate work on February 19, which you can view on Oaklawn.com’s Video Workout Database sponsored by RacingWithBruno. Rebecca Jo’s sire, Rock Your World, wins at an above average rate with first time starters and dirt sprinters while the dam, who has produced one sprint winning sibling, was a sprinter herself. #6 Vekoma’s Diva is a $100,000 sale purchase for trainer George Weaver, who strikes at a high 25% clip with first time starters. #5 Runaway Roxy turned in a fast work out of the gate on March 8 and may possess early speed. She was purchased for a mere $1,700; that’s cheap for a racehorse, and while she could have been placed in a maiden claimer, trainer Matt Shirer opts to debut her in a higher-quality maiden race, which we see as a positive sign.
Race 4: The first stake of the day, the 12-furlong Temperance Hill, looks like a two-horse battle. We give the nod to the second morning line choice, #6 Jokestar, who enters off a six length romp against stakes company at Laurel Park. He was the runner up in the G3 Valedictory at this distance in December, though that effort came over a synthetic racetrack. On dirt, his preferred surface, he is 4 for 6. #5 Parchment Party may be the first horse ever to run at Oaklawn after last racing in Australia’s G1 Melbourne Cup on turf. He was ambitiously placed that day and ran poorly; cross the race out. He enters this with a dominant two-back win at a mile in three-quarters in the Bridstone Stakes on dirt at Saratoga, plus an eight-length runaway win in the two-mile Belmont Gold Cup. #3 Tracking Error should enjoy the 12-furlong trip with his one-paced running style, but he’s not nearly as fast as the top two choices.
Race 5: The most likely winner of the day is #7 Noble Affair, an impressive maiden victor at the Fair Grounds in January. He earned a 93 Beyer speed figure while defeating three next out winners. Versatile in running style, he can set the pace or sit off and make a run depending on how the race unfolds. He’ll be tough. #4 Swung has consistently chased home stakes caliber competition in recent starts and should be around again with his usual effort. #5 Violence in Red was visually impressive in his maiden breaking win last month. While he’ll need to improve to outrun stablemate Noble Affair, he looks capable of picking up a minor award.
Race 6: #6 Prime Power competed in an allowance race as a maiden last time out and failed to make an impact. We can be forgiving of that. The race came back stronger than average, too: winner Zero Sugar returned to win a second level allowance with a 96 Beyer while third place finisher Faust earned a 93 Beyer in a 7-length romp in his next start. It’s also worth noting that Prime Power is an older runner facing mostly 3-year-olds here, giving him a slight edge in the seasoning department. First time starter #3 Trapianto Tom posts a handful of quick morning works for Southern California based trainer John Sadler. Pedigree suggests sprinting should suit him well: his dam was a stakes winning sprinter, and eight of 11 siblings won sprinting. In fact, one of them, Tanya Showers, was a multiple stakes placed sprinter at Oaklawn in 2024. #4 Dawn At Normandy cuts back from a route to a sprint, meaning he’ll be uber fit for this, and speed figures indicate he’s fast enough to be competitive.
Race 7: Florida based trainer Saffie Joseph Jr. holds a strong hand in this one. His #1 Practically Dark was the runner up behind a next out allowance winner in his most recent start and stacks up with this field on his best day. So does stable companion #3 Mish, seeking his third win a row. #4 Hola Joey dueled at a blistering fast pace in a tougher spot last time out and faded badly late. He was also making his first start in over five months that day. With a race into him and a projected softer pace scenario here, the stars align for him to run much better.
Race 8: #9 Shape Note sat close to a sharp pace in his last start before ultimately getting tagged late by a come-from-behind rival. He may be facing a slightly easier field this time around and draws a favorable post position that gives his rider options tactically. #3 Miracle Worker flew home full of energy in his most recent start and returns on short rest for new trainer Cippy Contreras, who strikes at a strong 24% first off the claim. His best efforts come when he has a target to chase, and prior subpar efforts can be attributed to him being positioned too close to the pace. #4 Dancin for Gold won a pair of races in Kentucky last summer and enters this spot off a vacation. His speed figures indicate his best effort would make him a legit contender for a top three finish.
Race 9: Then-maiden #4 Publisher finished second in last year’s 2025 Arkansas Derby. Exactly a year removed from that standout effort, he enters the 2026 American Pharoah Overnight Stakes off back-to-back wins. A very talented colt who is steadily trending in the right direction, his current form makes him dangerous in this spot. #1 Winnemac Avenue recently placed second behind a pair of quality winners in two salty allowance races at Oaklawn and is a reliable use to, at the very least, hit the board again. #8 Classic Car Wash represents one of the hottest barns at the meet, the Mark Casse stable, and was last seen finishing a neck behind two horses (Super Cruise and First Division) who have performed well in overnight stakes conditions similar to this.
Race 10: #7 Dance Some Mo has finished narrowly behind a pair of stakes caliber horses in prior starts this Oaklawn season and would be very competitive against this bunch with a repeat of those efforts. He failed to fire last time out, but his two and three back races are plenty good enough to make him a major player here. #3 Dr. Storm always closes with a rush and should be doing his best running late once again. A hard knocking guy, he was last seen finishing a head behind Publisher, our top pick in Race 9. #1 Moe Eighty Eight is fastest of all on his best day, but he has yet to prove he is as effective around two-turns as he is at a one turn-mile. At what figures to be a short price, we’ll try to beat him on the win end.
Race 11: The $500,000 Grade 3 Oaklawn Mile came up strong. Our top pick is #7 Nu What’s New, who had to settle for second last time out behind Magnitude, a Grade 2 winner and a major contender in one of the richest races in the world in Dubai this Saturday. Nu What’s New smoked easier company two and three starts ago in devastating fashion; he’s both talented and fast. 2024 Breeders Cup Dirt Mile winner #5 Full Serrano ships into Hot Springs off a third-place finish in the $3 million, nine-furlong Pegasus World Cup in January. Pegasus winner Skippylongstocking returned to win last week’s G3 Essex with ease, earning a 101 Beyer. Full Serrano clearly relishes traveling a mile, with six wins and three runner up finishes from 10 starts at the distance. #1 Will Take It slipped up the rail for a victory in the Fifth Season Stakes last time out. He does his best work at this one-mile trip and could outrun his 8-1 morning line odds, though he’ll need to take a couple steps forward to win the race.
Race 12: In his last start, #11 Baby Vino was beginning to launch a move when he clipped heels with a tiring rival, stumbled, and steadied sharply. He regathered his momentum and managed to rally for third, finishing just a length behind the 2-1 second morning line choice in this race. A cleaner trip and similar effort makes Baby Vino a live contender. #2 Bansky’s, who finished a length ahead of our top pick last time out, came storming home for a runner up finish in that effort—his first try at two turns. He could even run even better second time playing the route game. #6 Kelz exits back-to-back runner up finishes behind two very nice, up and coming 3-year-olds. He’s appealing based largely on the strength of the competition he’s been facing.
Race 13: The 2026 Arkansas Derby (G1) drew a solid group of nine. #6 Renegade could be tough. He finished second two starts ago behind Paladin, one of the top 3-year-olds in the country right now, and returned to win the Sam F. Davis (G3) at Tampa Bay Downs, defeating next out Tampa Bay Derby (G2) winner The Puma in the process. Renegade will be ridden by Irad Ortiz Jr, who opts for this guy over one of the favorites in the Florida Derby (G1) today at Gulfstream Park in Commandment. #2 Silent Tactic has done nothing wrong in his last two starts. He ran away from his competition in the Southwest (G3), then was narrowly defeated in the Rebel (G2) while showing a new dimension, tactically sitting closer to the pace. The top local contender, there’s no reason why he can’t fire another big shot. #3 Blackout Time was Grade 1 placed behind champion 2-year-old Ted Noffey last year and showed speed before fading in his first start off a 4-month break in the Rebel (G2). On the eye test, it looked like he needed that race, and we feel he can improve significantly in his second start as a 3-year-old. #4 Bricklin suffered a wide trip in the Sunland Derby last month, has a win over this track, and could outrun his odds. #5 Taptastic was an impressive maiden winner on debut and could move forward in just his second start, though it’s a lot to ask of him to win a race of this caliber with so little experience.
Race 14: #5 Our Vekoma Ride debuts for trainer Matt Shirer and has been working like a colt ready to win at first asking (a few of his morning drills can be viewed on Oaklawn.com.) His dam was a stakes winning sprinter, and two of three siblings won sprinting. Sire Vekoma connects at a strong 22% with first time starters, well above the average of 10%! #2 Whitley adds blinkers after hitting the board in both his starts this season. Irad Ortiz Jr. sticks around for the nightcap to ride—another positive. #10 Instamnia broke slowly, sat off the pace, and finished with interest for a runner up finish in his first career race three weeks ago. A similar effort puts him right back in the mix, and any move forward makes him a legit threat to take the whole pie in the finale on Arkansas Derby Day.
