Arkansas Derby Day Analysis - Matt Dinerman
By Matt Dinerman (Oaklawn Track Announcer)
A stakes-packed, 14-race marathon of a card comprises Arkansas Derby Day 2025. For a second or third (or tenth) opinion, here are my top three picks for each race on Arkansas Derby Day. Good luck!
Race 1: #10 Cashmeup will be tough to beat in the opener. He’s recently paired up back-to-back victories at similar class levels to what he competes at today. The forecast calls for some rain in the morning. A wet track won’t be an issue for Cashmeup; he’s won 3 of 4 starts over wet surfaces. #9 Executive Action has never lost at a mile and an eighth (3 for 3) and is likely to receive a good, clear trip from an outside position. #7 Icarus was second best to Cashmeup last time out and is eligible to finish in the money again. He’ll need to improve to turn the tables on our top pick though.
Race 2: #7 Fanatical will be very fit for this race: he cuts back from a route to a sprint after a fourth-place finish going long. Two past sprint efforts resulted in third place finishes, and the winner of both races are stakes caliber sprinters. #3 Vital Mind gets a strong jockey/trainer combination in Jose Ortiz and Steve Asmussen; they’ve won at a 32% clip together when teaming up in the past year. A son of top stallion Into Mischief, Vital Mind is the first foal out of 2020 Grade 1 Ogden Phipps winner She’s a Julie. Although ‘Julie was most successful routing, she broke her maiden on debut sprinting. #8 Thirteen G’s sports some quick works leading up to his first trip to the races. He’s a half-sibling to Pretty Layla, a maiden special weight sprint winner earlier in the meet.
Race 3: #10 Dawson James was second best to next-out allowance winner Touchdown Arkansas in a maiden race last month. Off what we thought was a strong effort behind a better than average maiden winner, Dawson James is the one to beat in this heat. #3 Willy Cuts, another second-time starter, lost by three parts of a length to Stormbender in February; the aforementioned racer is probable to run in a stake next week. Within the past year, trainer Steve Asmussen posts a higher win percentage with second-time starters than first timers. Improvement is very possible. #2 Arkoma is a firster that has decent ‘win early pedigree’, by white-hot stallion Vekoma out of a dam who won sprinting in the mud. This is her first foal to race. We liked how he looked in a gate work on March 14; you can view that workout along with many others on Oaklawn.com/racing/workouts.
Race 4: #12 She Called is a trip play. She steadied sharply early in her last race and lost all chance from there. Nonetheless, she produced a run up the rail, passed a few horses, and galloped out well. She’s eligible to run a much-improved race with a better trip. #7 Ashburn Alley ran on for second in her last two starts at this level. Her lone win came over a wet track. #9 Pharoah’s Heart drops down one class level and picks up the services of 2024 Eclipse Award-winning jockey Flavien Prat-both factors that can only be seen as beneficial.
Race 5: #8 Nicholai has caught my eye in the mornings; he appears like a runner with talent. His only sibling is Bennykayandsuzytoo, a solid sprinter (entered in Race 4) that has won allowance races in the past. We think Nicholai can pop at first asking. #1 Four O Nine failed to fire on debut, then suffered an unideal trip inside of horse’s midway through his second career start. He rallied for third by the time all was said and done. Not a bad effort. He picks up the meet’s leading rider Cristian Torres, only adding to the appeal. #5 Giant Moon is a first-time starter that has top human connections on his side. The work pattern suggests he’s got plenty of foundation leading up to this run. #10 Markansas is another debut entrant who posts a couple of decent works on Oaklawn.com.
Race 6: The first of six stakes on Arkansas Derby Day is the $250,000 Matron for filly and mare sprinters. #4 Almostgone Rocket hasn’t been seen since the summer time. She kicked off her career at Oaklawn last season with a dominant maiden win and was last seen easily defeating a stakes group at Saratoga. Trainer Brad Cox wins at an astronomically high 39% clip with his entrants making their first starts off a break over 180 days…fitness isn’t a concern. #1 Benedetta suffered a narrow loss last time out to Justique, scheduled to race in the G1 Madison at Keeneland next month. Benedetta is th main threat to our top pick. #6 Haulin Ice gets back to open company after a six-length romp against Arkansas-breds in the Downthedustyroad Stakes. This is a tougher group, but her best effort puts her in the hunt.
Race 7: #10 Favorite Outlaw sports fast morning works leading up to his 2025 debut for trainer Chris Hartman, who strikes at 25% with his trainees making their first start off a break over 180 days. He figures to work out a good trip either on the lead or just off the front runners. His speed figures from last year stack up with the main contenders in this race, too. #7 Navy Seal upset a state-bred group in the Nodouble Breeders’ Stakes last time out and faces open company here. A consistent dude who always seems to be around at the wire, he’s likely to receive a good trip off what’s expected to be a fast pace. #5 Zambezi makes the ultimate equipment change-he’s a first time gelding-and can make some noise off the shelf if he runs back to his best races from last year.
Race 8: The Grade 3 $500,000 Oaklawn Mile attracts a strong field. We give the nod to #3 Banishing, who lost a photo for the win in last month’s G3 Razorback Stakes. He has shown an affinity for the Oaklawn dirt…we’ll look to strike with him while the irons hot. #8 Saudi Crown was fifth best in the Grade 1 Pegasus last time out and freshens up while cutting back in distance for this eight-furlong contest. Strictly the class of the field. #1 The Wine Steward makes his second start off a nine-month break here. He earned a career high speed figure last time when winning the Fifth Season Stakes here at Oaklawn in January. #2 I’m McDreamy had a lot left in a recent dominant win against easier and could outrun his odds if he puts everything into it against this tougher group.
Race 9: We’re taking a massive price, #7 Iron Dome, who worked like a very good horse in preparation for his debut. Iron Dome lost his first start before the race went off: he acted rambunctiously in the post parade and almost flipped over at one point, was a bad actor at the gate, and never picked up his feet during the race. He has continued to work like a very nice horse. Hopefully he behaves this time. He’s bred to go two turns: his dam was a router and 3 of 5 siblings were routers including multiple stakes winner Mr. Buff. #4 Oy Gevald was second best last time at this level and makes his second start at a two-turn distance. No reason he can’t run well again. #3 Zero Sugar placed second while earning a strong Beyer speed figure (89) behind Cornucopian, the Arkansas Derby 7-5 morning line favorite. Zero Sugar clearly has ability, but can he route? Although all three siblings were sprinters, his dam was a router.
Race 10: The Eclipse Overnight Stakes is for sprinters. #5 Wendelssohn was last seen reporting second home to Booth, a next out 107 Beyer earner/winner of the Grade 3 Whitmore Stakes. There are no Booth’s in this race…Wendelssohn should be a handful here. #9 Attache is a stablemate to our top pick. We hope Attache is forwardly placed in a race that doesn’t attract a great deal of speed. #3 Durante is another that could show speed. He’s a legit player with a repeat of his last start, an allowance win in which he broke slowly from the gate, rushed up to the lead, and won with good energy. He was much the best that day.
Race 11: The American Pharoah Stakes attracts a strong group. #1 Bishops Bay has never finished worse than second in seven lifetime starts. His last start, a decisive allowance victory, sets him up well for this stake try. He also has back class; just five starts ago, he placed second behind Belmont and Travers winner Arcangelo. #3 Bendoog is a Grade 2 placed horse who was last seen losing by a neck to Disarm, a graded stakes caliber horse who would be the favorite if he were entered (and eligible) for this race. #7 Maycocks Bay seeks a confidence booster after a third-place finish in the Grade 3 Mineshaft. This is considered a class drop for him.
Race 12: 100 points will be awarded to the Grade 2 $750,000 Fantasy Stakes winner. We predict 100-point earner will be #5 Quietside, fresh off a victory in the Grade 3 Honeybee. Grade 1 placed at 2, the class of the field can run on a fast or wet track and possesses a versatile running style. #1 Take Charge Milady defeated Quietside in the Martha Washington on January 25, though Quietside suffered a bad trip while Take Charge Milady received a smooth, uneventful journey. Last time out, Take Charge Milady broke slowly, got bumped around at the start and never ran a step afterwards. We can be forgiving of that. #7 Simply Joking is a perfect 2 for 2. #6 Necessity is steadily improving all the time and has the looks of a contender who can outrun her odds while #3 Kinzie Queen was an unlucky loser in her last two races and can run faster if she works out a good trip one of these days.
Race 13: The 2025 Grade 1 Arkansas Derby offers a purse of $1,500,000 and 100 Kentucky Derby points to the gold medalist. We’ll go with the fan favorite #8 Coal Battle, who is undefeated in five starts on dirt. He always shows up, tactically can work out a good trip from any part of the racetrack and has the heart of a champ. #9 Cornucopian may be the most gifted horse in the race, but it’s a big ask to win at nine furlongs after just one sprint run. He won on debut the right way though, setting a contested pace before kicking away from the competition for a 6-length win and a 101 Beyer speed figure. Taiba won the 2022 Santa Anita Derby using the same game plan-one race, a six-furlong victory, followed by a nine furlong win in the SA Derby. So, it can be done, and if anyone can do it, it might be Cornucopian. #6 Sandman hasn’t been on the lucky end of things in his last two starts-stumbling terribly at the break in the Southwest before running on for second, and third last out in the Rebel over a surface that catered to speed. He’ll enjoy any added grounded he can get, but he’ll need to run down the top pair, both who have more tactical speed and strong finishing abilities. #3 Publisher enters this race still a maiden. He has shown plenty of talent though, and now adds blinkers for the winningest trainer of all time Steve Asmussen. A possible surprise package if he can put it all together with the equipment change. #4 Bestfriend Rocket and #2 First Division ran 1-2 in an allowance race recently and merit respect for an underneath placing.
Race 14: #4 Bolt at Midnight is the speed of the speed in the nightcap. He has shown the ability to deal with pressure on the lead before finishing strong in the latter stages of his races. He’ll wait on horses down the lane, but once rivals come up to him, he digs in and finds more. #2 Lat Long has posted the best speed figures out of anyone in this field. He had to settle for the silver medal in his two most recent starts, placing behind two horses who are stakes quality racers. #9 Ethan Energy exits an allowance win at Tampa and must be respected for the jockey/trainer combo of Prat and Cox.
$20 Show Bet Bonus Parlay
Race 8: #3 Banishing
Race 11: #1 Bishops Bay
Race 12: #5 Quietside
Race 13: #8 Coal Battle
Best Bet of the Day: Race 3: #10 Dawson James
Longshot Value Play: Race 9: #7 Iron Dome
