2/27/26 Stakes Advance - Rebel (G2)
Compiled by Robert Yates
OP Stakes Race Preview - $1 million Rebel Stakes (G2) – Sunday, March 1
Litmus Test will make his 3-year-old debut at Oaklawn after all.
An accomplished 2-year-old, Litmus Test is one of 10 horses entered in Sunday’s $1 million Rebel Stakes (G2), a 1 1/16-mile race that is Oaklawn’s third Kentucky Derby qualifying event.
The Rebel headlines a 12-race card that begins at noon CST. Probable post time for the Rebel, race 11, is 5:23 p.m. The program also features the $750,000 Honeybee Stakes (G3) for 3-year-old fillies at 1 1/16 miles and the inaugural $135,000 Pig Trail Overnight Stakes for older horses at 1 ½ miles.
Litmus Test is trying to give Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert his record-extending ninth Rebel victory. Litmus Test was the 5-2 program favorite for the $1 million Southwest Stakes (G3) Feb. 6 at Oaklawn, but he didn’t make the trip from his Southern California base. Baffert then targeted the $200,000 San Felipe Stakes (G2) March 7 at Santa Anita for Litmus Test’s 3-year-old debut before circling back to Oaklawn, where he owns a record 20 victories in its four-race Kentucky Derby prep series.
Baffert nominated four horses to the Rebel, including Southwest third-place finisher Buetane and Grade 1 winner Brant. Buetane ran third in the Southwest.
“What I do this time of the year is I nominate and then whoever is doing, I know it sounds like a broken record, but whoever is doing well that week is who I run,” Baffert said. “I was going to bring Brant up there, but he wasn’t quite ready for it. Litmus Test, I was going to run him the following week in the San Felipe, but he worked really well. He’s doing really well. If they’re doing really well, if you can find a race for them, run ’em.”
The Rebel will offer 105 total points (50-25-15-10-5, respectively) to the top five finishers toward starting eligibility for the Kentucky Derby.
Rebel entrants from the rail out: Bravaro, Francisco Arrieta to ride, 121 pounds, 8-1 on the morning line; Litmus Test, Flavien Prat, 121, 7-2; Class President, John Velazquez, 119, 10-1; Blackout Time, Brian Hernandez Jr., 119, 8-5; Honey’s to Blame, Emmanuel Esquivel, 124, 20-1; Strategic Risk, Javier Castellano, 124, 12-1; Silent Tactic, Cristian Torres, 124, 9-2; Rancho Santa Fe, Irad Ortiz Jr., 121, 12-1; Time for Music, Keith Asmussen, 119, 30-1; and Soldier N Diplomat, Jose Oritz, 121, 10-1. Bravaro, cross-entered in Saturday’s Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2) at Gulfstream Park, is expected to scratch.
Litmus Test, a son of 2016 Kentucky Derby winner Nyquist, raced five times last year. His stalking tactics netted a 5 ½-furlong debut victory Aug. 16 at Del Mar and a 1 1/16-mile victory in his final start, the Los Alamitos Futurity (G2) Dec. 13 at Los Alamitos.
Between those victories, Litmus Test ran third behind Ted Noffey and Blackout Time in the Breeders’ Futurity (G1) at 1 1/16 miles Oct. 4 at Keeneland and fourth behind Ted Noffey in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) at 1 1/16 miles Oct. 31 at Del Mar. Ted Noffey, unbeaten in four starts, was an Eclipse Award winner as North America’s champion 2-year-old male.
“I think it’s a good spot,” Baffert said of the Rebel. “It’s tough, but I think he’s a very good horse. So, I’m looking forward to it.”
Litmus Test has seven published workouts this year at Santa Anita in advance of the Rebel, the last a half-mile move in :47.80 Feb. 21.
“I think he’ll be forwardly placed,” Baffert said.
Program favorite Blackout Time hasn’t started since the Breeders’ Futurity after he was a regulatory veterinarian scratch from the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. Blackout Time has only five published workouts since late October, including a fivew-furlong bullet (1:00) Feb. 11 at Oaklawn. All five works have come since Jan. 23 for trainer Kenny McPeek, who is on a tight schedule to make the Kentucky Derby. The hope, McPeek said, is the Rebel will be Blackout Time’s bridge to the $1.5 million Arkansas Derby (G1) March 28 at Oaklawn.
“He’s a talented horse,” McPeek said.
Strategic Risk (Smarty Jones Stakes) and Silent Tactic (G3 Southwest Stakes) won Oaklawn’s first two Kentucky Derby qualifying races for dual Hall of Fame trainer Mark Casse. Casse is seeking his fourth consecutive victory in a Kentucky Derby points race at Oaklawn after winning last year’s Arkansas Derby with Sandman.
After finishing second in the Smarty Jones, Silent Tactic passed nine horses in the final three-sixteenths of a mile to win the Southwest going away. The 1 1/16-mile race was delayed six days because of a winter storm in late January, leading Oaklawn to close the track for training for nine consecutive days (Jan. 24-Feb. 1) and cancel racing Jan. 30, Jan. 31 and Feb. 1.
Casse said he believes Silent Tactic is in even better form now, particularly after watching the son of Tacitus record a swift half-mile work (:47.20) Feb. 20. Silent Tactic won the Southwest by 3 ¼ lengths.
“None of them did a lot going into the Southwest and he ran so well, so we didn’t want to change that pattern,” Casse said. “We didn’t do as much with him (compared to Strategic Risk). That being said, I think he probably worked the best he’s ever worked. He was a horse six months ago that you couldn’t get out of a gallop. It amazes me. Now, he’s eager and he wants to do things. I’m excited about him, but I want to see him do it two times in a row.”
Strategic Risk looks to rebound from a 10th-place finish in the Southwest, which Casse said may have been tied to the missed training.
“It affects every horse different,” Casse said. “That’s the only excuse I could give him. So, for that reason, we did a little bit more with him.”
Soldier N Diplomat was making his 3-year-old debut in the Southwest, which was his third stakes race. He also finished fourth behind Ted Noffey in the Hopeful (G1) at seven furlongs Sept. 1 at Saratoga and third in the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) at 1 1/16 miles Nov. 29 at Churchill Downs. The Southwest was his second start around two turns.
“Unbelievably talented horse,” said Hall of Fame trainer Steve Asmussen, a four-time Rebel winner. “Need to finish the race off to make the difference. Like how he’s trained here since the Southwest. Quick turnaround with a healthy horse.”
Rancho Santa Fe finished fourth in the Southwest for trainer Brad Cox. Class President exits a runner-up finish in the Swale Stakes (G2) at seven furlongs Jan. 31 at Gulfstream Park for Hall of Fame trainer Todd Pletcher, a two-time Rebel winner.
